And although his coup attempt failed, it’s entirely possible that he may achieve better results next time if Republicans who believe the ‘big lie’ are in a position to determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Trump, however, has seized the opportunity to take revenge on officials who thwarted his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as to enforce party allegiance toward himself and his false charges of election fraud. Party leaders almost never intervene in such races for fear of creating internal divisions that may damage the winning candidate’s chances in the general election. Never before in living memory has any defeated US president demanded that candidates of his party running for election pledge their loyalty to him, nor put his personal seal of approval on candidates in competitive primaries. People who are not familiar with the American political process may not understand how Trump has shattered long-held norms by inserting himself into races up and down the ballot all around the country. In the end, like the all-powerful boss he played on his reality-television show ‘The Apprentice,’ Trump gave the nod to Oz and told McCormick that he was, in effect, fired. The two front-runners, TV doctor Mehmet Oz and hedge fund executive David McCormick, made supplicatory visits to Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and proclaimed their undying loyalty to all things Trumpian. In this race, as in many others around the country, Trump had the leading Republican senatorial candidates audition for his endorsement. People who are not familiar with the American political process may not understand how Trump has shattered long-held norms.Īll of these dynamics are playing out as Trump prepares to visit Pennsylvania for a rally before the state’s Republican primary elections on 17 May. The vast majority of Republicans agree with Trump’s unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent and see this election as a chance for payback. Most polls show that Republican voters are more motivated than Democrats as the midterms approach. These include inflation, rising levels of violent crime, the chaotic situation at the southern border, and perceived progressive overreach on issues of race and sexuality, all of which have combined to produce President Joe Biden’s near-record low approval ratings. Republicans are energised by this prospect as well as by other factors that bid to make this a difficult cycle for Democrats. Since World War II, the average midterm election has resulted in a loss of 26 House seats for the president’s party - and Republicans only need to gain five seats to assume a majority in the 435-seat chamber. Midterm elections historically have been bad for the incumbent president’s party. Other Republican primary elections this spring will confirm his kingmaker status, and the likely Republican triumph in the midterm elections this fall will make it all but inevitable that he will be the party’s 2024 presidential nominee. Trump’s unparalleled dominance over the party, even out of office, has meant that very few Republican politicians dare to challenge him in any way. As one Ohio voter told a reporter, ‘If Trump supports Vance, then we know he will be good.’ Vance in the Ohio Republican senatorial primary elevated the ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ author from a likely fourth-place finish to victory. Trump is still, by far, the most popular figure in the Republican Party. Nothing has dented the loyalty of Trump’s political base - not his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, not his lying about it having been stolen, and not even his incitement of the assault on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. At regular intervals, political pundits predict that Donald Trump’s supporters are finally about to turn against him and the Republican Party will return to what it was before Trump.
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